I suppose I’ll look back and be glad that I witnessed such a great rivalry in men’s tennis. Since I’m a Roger Federer fan, I was disappointed that he fell short in his quest to win six straight Wimbledon titles. Still, it was a magnificent match with some to most amazing shots I’ve ever seen. It was high quality tennis wire to wire.
When I’m in my fifties or sixties, I want to be able to tell my kids about Federer and Nadal. Roger vs. Rafa has already turned into a great rivalry. It’s 12-6 Nadal, but that doesn’t mean that Nadal “owns” Federer, as I’ve heard some uninformed talking heads say. The majority of their matches (10) have been on clay, with Nadal holding a 9-1 advantage. Here are the results of those matches:
- 2005 French Open Semifinals: Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- 2006 Monte Carlo Masters Finals: Nadal 6-2, 6-7 (7-2), 6-3, 7-6 (7-5)
- 2006 Rome Masters Finals: Nadal 6-7 (7-0), 7-6 (7-5), 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (7-5)
- 2006 French Open Finals: Nadal 1-6, 6-1, 6-4, 7-6 (7-4)
- 2007 Monte Carlo Masters Finals: Nadal 6-4, 6-4
- 2007 Hamburg Masters Finals: Federer 2-6, 6-2, 6-0
- 2007 French Open Finals: Nadal 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
- 2008 Monte Carlo Masters Finals: Nadal 7-5, 7-5
- 2008 Hamburg Masters Finals: Nadal 7-5, 6-7 (7-3), 6-3
- 2008 French Open Finals: Nadal 6-1, 6-3, 6-0
While Nadal has dominated in the sense of victories on clay, only his French Open win this year was truly dominant. Federer has beaten Nadal on clay, and he has had his chances at other times, including a match point in Rome in 2006 as well as a big lead in the first set in Hamburg this year. All right, they have met eight times on other surfaces, so here are those results:
- 2004 Miami Masters Round of 32 (Hardcourt): Nadal 6-3, 6-3
- 2005 Miami Masters Finals (Hardcourt): Federer 2-6, 6-7 (7-4), 7-6 (7-5), 6-3, 6-1
- 2006 Dubai Finals (Hardcourt): Nadal 2-6, 6-4, 6-4
- 2006 Wimbledon Finals (Grass): Federer 6-0, 7-6 (7-5), 6-7 (7-2), 6-3
- 2006 Tennis Masters Cup Semifinals (Hardcourt): Federer 6-4, 7-5
- 2007 Wimbledon Finals (Grass): Federer 7-6 (9-7), 4-6, 7-6 (7-3), 2-6, 6-2
- 2007 Tennis Masters Cup Semifinals (Hardcourt): Federer 6-4, 6-1
- 2008 Wimbledon Finals (Grass): Nadal 6-4, 6-4, 6-7 (7-5), 6-7 (10-8), 9-7
Nadal has taken two from Federer on hardcourts, but only one since 2004, and none since 2006. He has not been able to get past Federer in the Masters Cup the past two years, and Federer’s win last year was a dismantling. On grass, they seem to be equals, with Nadal improving each year.
I’ve seen several of their matches, and I still am somewhat mystified at the results Nadal has had against Federer. Maybe his game is just well-suited to frustrate Federer, much like David Nalbandian’s game frustrates Federer. Or perhaps he’s just in Federer’s head. Roger has always said the he doesn’t have to prepare for any opponent other than Nadal, meaning that if he plays his game well, he can defeat anyone other than Nadal without specific preparation. I don’t know. I’m normally not one to give too much credence to the mental game. Now it does play a part. I think it did at Wimbledon this year. My opinion is that the beatdown Federer received at Roland Garros was in his mind. He dropped the first two sets with some poor decisions, then started to serve the way he could – and should against Nadal – and he was able to come back. I thought he had a mental edge going into the final set, but Nadal was able to fend him off.
One thing I noticed about this year’s Wimbledon as opposed to last year is that Federer beat himself this year. Last year Rafa clearly outplayed Roger, but Federer’s serve saved him. This year, Federer had lots of winner, but way too many unforced errors. He’s still getting frustrated by Nadal’s ability to track down shots as well as that lefty forehand to his backhand. On grass, I think Federer should counterpunch Nadal: just give him slice backhands and make Nadal force things, thus producing errors. It’s always when Federer tries to force things that he gets burned by Nadal. It wasn’t until the last three sets that Federer finally started serving the grass-court way: serve out wide and then knock the return into the open court. He also found that Nadal had a terrible time returning Federer’s second serves; the kick serve to his backhand was giving him all sorts of trouble.
Has Federer slipped or has Nadal just improved greatly? Hard to say. I think Federer has lost some of his mental advantage (there I am talking about the mental game again). In 2004-2006 he lost only 15 matches total. He went 74-6, 81-4, and 92-5. Yikes! He had so many guys just psyched out and beaten before they even set foot on the court. Now players have hope. Remember that third round Australian Open match against Janko Tipsarevic? He began to believe and it took a monumental effort from Federer to fend him off. This year, Federer has already lost nine times – as many as all last season. He even lost to Andy Roddick! He’s dropped matches this year to Mary Fish, Andy Murray, and Radek Stepanek. Well, last year he fell to Guillermo Canas twice and to Filippo Volandri, so I wouldn’t say that’s much of change.
Nadal has been #2 for over three years now, and he’s still in that slot. In order to surpass Federer, he’s going to have to perform well on hardcourts, something he hasn’t done in the past. The last two years he has suffered a major drop-off in performance after Wimbledon. Last year in particular was disappointing. He lost in the fourth round to David Ferrer at the U.S. Open, then was demolished in straight sets by David Nalbandian in consecutive tournaments (6-1, 6-2 in Madrid and 6-4, 6-0 in Paris). He lost to Ferrer again at the Tennis Masters Cup round robin stage. His final match of the year was his 6-4, 6-1 loss to Federer. He’s going to have to do better than that if he hopes to become and stay #1.
I think we need to keep the rivalry separate from their places in history. While Nadal is a great player – and maybe the greatest clay-courter ever – his place in history is nowhere near Federer’s. He has 5 Grand Slam titles, while Federer has 12. Federer has 7 Grand Slam titles on hard courts; Nadal has 0. Federer has 4 Tennis Masters Cup titles; Nadal has not even made it to a final in that event. The most telling statistic is this: Federer has made it to 17 straight Grand Slam semifinals, while Nadal’s best streak is 3 (current). Since 2004, Federer has made it to the finals of 15 of 19 Grand Slams, winning 11 of those finals. He once made it to 10 straight Grand Slam Finals. Until Nadal does half of all that, he can’t be mentioned in the same breath as Federer when it comes to all-time greatness.